This system reacts even crazier than Bitcoin

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Daniel Saurenz
This system reacts even crazier than Bitcoin

30 percent up, 50 percent down, 30 percent up – that’s the short story of the D-Wave Quantum share from January 8, 2025. Nvidia boss Huang rated the story about quantum computing as exciting, but at least 15 years away. The list of the most traded stocks on the Gettex stock exchange or at Smartbroker in Berlin shows that stocks from the sector are obviously very interesting for private investors. For days, D-Wave Quantum was on par with established stocks such as Nvidia, Mercedes and Tesla.

However, the substance of the rally in quantum stocks is likely to be manageable and the trend will not last forever. After that, highly speculative traders will return To use Bitcoin and Ethereum, even if Bitcoin became quieter for a short time after the $100,000 mark was reached. “It took around 16 years for Bitcoin to reach the $100,000 mark,” says Vanyo Walter from broker RoboMarkets. Now many are waiting for January 20th. The new US government with crypto fan Donald Trump could actually create reliable framework conditions for dealing with digital currencies relatively quickly. More legal certainty means more interest from institutional investors and thus increasing demand and higher prices.

How high will Bitcoin rise?

What is crucial for the future, however, is the question of what is already priced into the prices. After all, a lot of speculative capital flowed into Bitcoin from the beginning of November. In the first twelve days after the US election, almost $7 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs. This corresponds to around 6,000 Bitcoin. In contrast, since the halving in April, only around 450 Bitcoin per day have come onto the market due to the associated shortage. A few years ago there were an average of around 1,800 fictitious coins.

Demand significantly exceeds supply, especially since Bitcoin is increasingly being held by long-term investors and therefore there are comparatively few coins in circulation. The momentum is slowly fading. The introduction of ETFs is complete, the next halving is not until 2028 and the Trump bet is also being played.

Bitcoin is not a replacement for gold

It is often forgotten that Bitcoin is primarily used for speculation and should not be seen as a substitute for gold and therefore as a safe haven. “You now have to pay 37 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin,” calculates Vanyo Walter. The crypto asset was similarly expensive during the two peak phases in 2021. According to Franz-Georg Wenner from IndexRadar, a look in the rearview mirror shows how quickly the mood can change. “Exactly two years ago, the bankruptcy of the crypto exchange FTX pushed Bitcoin to $16,000. The mood was in the basement, within just twelve months the price collapsed by around 77 percent.”

Price drop to $70,000 possible

There have been similar patterns several times in the still young history. Whenever the price exceeded a power of ten, a crypto winter followed. After the 10 mark was passed in 2011, the 100 and 1000 hurdles in 2013 and the 10,000 mark in 2017, the following months saw a decline of 70 to 80 percent. Since the US election at the beginning of November, the price has risen by 50 percent and has reached the next power of ten at 100,000. So far, the high has mostly been reached above the power of ten with a final exaggeration.

The question is not whether, but when the next slowdown will follow. Losses of 80 percent and thus prices of 20,000 or 30,000 USD are hardly to be expected, as Bitcoin is now also in demand from institutional sources and is now also receiving political support. But it wouldn’t be surprising if we saw the old high of $70,000 again.

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