Sean Payton’s moment and other thoughts as the Broncos prepare for a playoff upset

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Don’t eat the cheese.

Sean Payton spoke this week as if a mantra from his most famous coaching mentor, Bill Parcells, was ringing in his ears. The cheese in the metaphor is the praise and recognition a team receives while exceeding expectations. In the Broncos’ case, this came after Denver secured its first playoff berth since 2015 with a Week 18 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

But the cheese, as Teddy Bridgewater, another Parcells mentee, explained during his season as Denver’s starting quarterback in 2021, is actually rat poison, the trap that exists for any team that lets complacency set in after a turning point. Payton even placed baskets full of cheese in Saints players’ lockers after the team clinched a playoff spot in 2020.

“As a head coach, I’ve probably been paying attention to, ‘What are these things that are potentially distracting from the process outside the building or even inside the building?'” Payton said Monday as the focus shifted to this weekend’s wild-card matchup with the Buffalo Bills. “The euphoria of ‘We’re back in the playoffs.’ “We’re finally back,” (it’s about) monitoring that and understanding how that could happen – or preventing that from impacting the margin and preparation. I think that comes up a lot as a head coach and vice versa during the season when the sky is falling. Make sure your players understand that this really isn’t the case.”

In two seasons as Denver’s head coach, Payton has significantly changed the culture in Denver, a culture that requires “insane attention to detail” and abhors excuses. In doing so, he has fulfilled the vision of owner Greg Penner, who was looking for these qualities when he and the rest of the team’s ownership group began the search for a new head coach just six months into his tenure at the helm of the franchise.

Along the way, Payton has given confidence to a “young and dangerous” team that has bought into his vision, in part because it continues to work as he promised.

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“One of the first things he did when he got here last year was tell us his expectations and his future prospects,” wide receiver Courtland Sutton said. “He kind of let us know that it’s something that you might not understand (at first), but if you believe in it and trust in it, the tide will turn. We are in a period of transition where it’s about having the right people in the locker room – the way we meet, the way we train and the way we play. The belief on game day is completely different. I think that just speaks to the fact that it’s contagious.”

That belief and trust in Payton’s vision is one of the biggest reasons – perhaps the biggest – that the Broncos are back in the playoffs for the first time since their victory in Super Bowl 50. Now that they’re here, Payton might be Denver’s biggest asset. From the preparation that spans final team meetings to his play calls to the game management decisions he’ll make, Payton’s playoff experience (9-8 in 17 games) will have to shine through if Denver wants to pull off a major upset.

“You teach them what wins: ball security and field position. However, there is a level of trust that needs to be built,” Payton said. “It can’t just manifest itself. This happened over the course of the season. We have to play. Obviously we’re playing against a really good football team. We have to play a really complete game.”

A look at the roster highlights the importance of Payton’s postseason experience. Of the 22 players who started last week’s game against the Chiefs, only seven have played in a playoff game. The Bills are now in this position for the sixth time in a row.

Payton was here. He won a wild card game away from home. He won the postseason as an underdog. It is his experience that is reassuring and will have to play a big role in Sunday’s game.

A few more thoughts about the upcoming kickoff:

Bo Nix’s strength can exploit a Bills weakness

There’s been a lot of talk at Broncos headquarters this week about dealing with Josh Allen’s dangerous “second act,” the improvisational aspect of his game that occurs after he completes his first reading. But how the Bills deal with Nix’s ad-libs is an equally important subplot.

According to TruMedia, the Broncos’ rookie ranked second in touchdown passes (nine), second in passing yards (802) and 11th in expected points added per dropback when operating outside the pocket. He had the league’s sixth-best EPA while scrambling, which accounted for much of his significant rushing production this season (430 yards, four total touchdowns).

The Bills had difficulty at times dealing with quarterbacks working outside of structure. Opponents with throws outside the pocket posted a passer rating of 100.5, the fifth-worst defensive grade in the NFL. The opposing quarterbacks threw nine touchdowns (the second most) and only one interception on these plays.

Nix’s feet need to be a central part of Denver’s game plan. Some of his work outside the pocket will be the natural response to what may be happening inside, but getting him to the edge where his dual-threat skills can be most dangerous should also be part of the “first act.” Design, be it through play-action concepts or naked rollouts. The Bills have been affected by this at various points this season.

“It definitely helps with the pass rush threat when they start yelling at their coaches to back off,” right tackle Mike McGlinchey said when asked how he assesses the threat Nix poses when he is on the move this season and puts pressure on the defense. “It takes a little bit of the edge off. Certainly a spontaneous third-down conversion like he had early in the game last week (against the Chiefs) is what he’s done all year. The ability to get out of the pocket and make plays was hugely important to our offense. He’s only scratching the surface with all of this.”

Nik Bonitto’s role will be crucial

Nik Bonitto finished his third NFL season with 13.5 sacks, the most for a Broncos player since 2018. His pressure rate of 16.2 percent over the last two seasons is the seventh-highest in the league (minimum 500 pass rush), according to TruMedia -Snaps). . This is a player you want rushing the quarterback on most plays.

But Bonitto’s role in Sunday’s game goes beyond that. His two defensive touchdowns in back-to-back games (Browns, Colts) showcased the instincts that have helped him make a splash off the ball. Quarterbacks are averaging just 5.7 yards per target this season when targeting Bonitto, whose chances in that area usually come when he separates from a running back who leaves the backfield before making up for a block.

Bills running backs Ty Johnson and James Cook combined for 542 yards rushing in the regular season and averaged 9.4 yards and 8.1 yards after the catch, respectively. Bonitto won’t be the primary person responsible for containing this element of Buffalo’s offense — his primary job is to disrupt Allen’s rhythm after the snap — but the linebacker’s speed and instincts off the ball could play a role in limiting his impact.

Bonitto, who was named second-team All-Pro by The Associated Press on Friday, noted this week that Denver must have a selfless rush plan against Allen that can turn a single lapse in discipline into a game-changing run. Bonitto won’t be a full-time starter on Sunday, but he’ll likely be part of a wide-ranging and important role for Denver.

All-Pro honors highlight the Broncos’ tumultuous path

In addition to Bonitto, four other Broncos players received All-Pro nominations on Friday. Cornerback Pat Surtain was a near-unanimous first-team selection for the second time in his career. Right guard Quinn Meinerz and punt returner Marvin Mims Jr. also made the first team. Defensive end Zach Allen and Bonitto were named to the second team. Overall, the Broncos’ five All-Pro selections were the most for the team since 1996.

“It’s a great honor for all of them,” Payton said.

The selection is also a reminder of why the Broncos are where they are on Sunday and how they can play beyond Wild Card Weekend. Meinerz — like Allen, he’s an All-Pro despite being left out of the Pro Bowl — represents an offensive line that gave Nix time to develop without the barrage of hits that rookie quarterbacks often take. While the Broncos have been an inconsistent running team this season, they averaged 1.62 yards per run before contact, according to TruMedia, which was the eighth-best mark in the league and a measure of Denver’s line’s ability to outscore opponents to move.

The Broncos improved this season from 20th in red zone efficiency in 2023 (50.8 percent) to seventh (62.5). In these situations, the Broncos reduced the pressure on their opponents – Nix’s speed and skill also played a role – and created more space in the running game. The Broncos jumped from 29th in TruMedia’s rushing success metric for red zone plays last season to 16th this season.

“Training camp was the hardest because you have Quinn and (left guard) Ben Powers and people like that, and I stand by them by far being the best two guards in football — it’s not even close,” Allen said . “… They got us ready for these five or six weeks. That’s why I think we got off to a good start defensively and really got going. Competing against them made it a lot easier.”

The opposite was the case. Meinerz said he’s had to start the last three training camps by accepting the reality that nose tackle DJ Jones “is almost impossible to move in the run game.” From there, Allen and new additions John Franklin-Myers and Malcolm Roach caused their own problems.

“Zach manages to time the snap, he just frustrated us every day,” Meinerz said. “He also has a great pass rush. There are so many layers to our defense that made training camp difficult every day. When we put on our pads and stuff, we think, ‘Okay, this is going to be a long, two-and-a-half-hour team practice today.’ It’s been a long road for both of us. It gave us our best shot and I think it helped them too.”

Broncos general manager George Paton expressed a vision of a team that could dominate on both sides of the ball upon his arrival in 2021. It was not a novel endeavor, but it took time to acquire and develop the building blocks. But as the Broncos head into their first playoff game since Payton took over, it’s the work he’s done building up the offensive and defensive fronts that gives the Broncos a chance in a tough environment Sunday in Buffalo. That and the fact that his first-ever draft pick, Surtain, is capable of obliterating one side of the field.

A big play from Denver’s All-Pro punt returner wouldn’t hurt either.

(Top photo: David Eulitt / Getty Images)