I love the NFL playoffs – but I’m afraid of the FC Bayern dilemma

The NFL playoffs are the best time of the year for me in terms of sports. Hardly any other competition is as close and unpredictable as the postseason of the US Football League.

Football is not called the “Game of Inches” for nothing. Often only centimeters decide between victory and defeat. Nuances determine whether there is joy or sadness. The slightest mistake can mean the end of all dreams and hopes.

At the new season, the cards will finally be reshuffled by the draft and salary cap; today’s success is no guarantee of success next season.

Only one thing counts: confetti rain in the Super Bowl and the shiny silver Vince Lombardy in your hands. The championship.

But there are still a few knockout rounds to get through before the ultimate NFL final. The playoffs start on Saturday with the wildcard round. Only the two best teams in each conference, the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) and the Detroit Lions (NFC), have a day off and first have to compete in the Divisional Round. For the other twelve teams, every yard counts.

I can’t wait and I’m particularly happy about three things. But one scenario makes me a little scared and worried.

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson promise great quarterback play

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson: The duo fought a sensational long-distance duel week after week during the regular season for the MVP title, the most valuable player of the season. It was a pure pleasure to watch the two quarterbacks.

They have broken decades-old records and set new ones. They have set new standards, as a passer and as a runner. Highlights and spectacle, routine for Allen and Jackson.

Now it should finally work for the two playmakers in January. While Allen has had some brilliant playoff performances with the Buffalo Bills in the past, it turned out that Jackson still owes a lot here. He has two MVP titles – he has the same number of playoff victories with the Baltimore Ravens. That’s not enough for an elite player.

Neither of them has a ring on their finger yet, let alone made it to the Super Bowl. The explanation is simple: Patrick Mahomes. The superstar plays with the super-team Kansas City Chiefs in the same conference. The aim is to beat him this year.

The Bills or Ravens can only meet the Chiefs in the conference championship game, the semifinals. One round earlier there would be an epic duel between the two best players of the year. If the Bills (against the Denver Broncos) and the Ravens (against the Pittsburgh Steelers) win their opening game, it will be Allen versus Jackson in the Divisional Round.

In addition to the trio Allen, Jackson and Mahomes, many other quarterback stars are in the playoffs with their teams. The power density has rarely been so great. Only superstar Joe Burrow narrowly missed the playoffs with his Cincinnati Bengals.

Offensive fireworks

The Bengals’ offensive firepower and Burrow’s cool will certainly be missed. But the other teams also know the way to the end zone too well. Ten of the eleven best offenses in terms of points scored made it to the playoffs. This promises a spectacle!

Even the Los Angeles Rams’ worst playoff offense in terms of points is capable of anything. The top game against the Bills at the beginning of December showed this. There the 2022 champion surprisingly won a 44:42 shootout.

The best offense probably belongs to the Detroit Lions around the German-American superstar Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Michigan State franchise is the first team in NFL history to have four players with over 1,000 scrimmage yards.

The two running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery were mostly able to cause destruction on the ground. Through the air, receivers Jameson Williams and St. Brown were dangerous weapons for veteran playmaker Goff. This versatility makes the Lions the hottest contender for the Super Bowl.

The crushing dominance of the Chiefs

Despite all the euphoria for the playoffs, there is also a not entirely unlikely scenario that really terrifies me.

The Kansas City Chiefs could become the first team in NFL history to win three championships in a row. In 2023 and 2024 I was there live and stood in the red and yellow confetti rain of Phoenix and Las Vegas. Honestly: I will finally see different colors in New Orleans.

The NFL is designed for equal opportunity. Unlike in football, the champions do not get more money than all other teams. In addition, the worst teams of the season can be selected first in the NFL Draft, the talent draw for young college players. And the salary cap would prevent franchises from putting together an All-Star team.

Successes over a longer period of time are all the more impressive. The Chiefs have dominated since Patrick Mahomes became the starter at Missouri. The team has always been in the semi-finals since 2018. It also reached the final four times and won three times. Even the New England Patriots with Tom Brady, which had been successful for over two decades, were not so oppressive. We live in a Chiefs dynasty.

This year too, the title will only go to Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs secured the so-called first seed in the AFC in the regular season. They had a best record of 15-2, earning them a bye week on Wild Card weekend.

Defending champion, first seed, Mahomes – on paper, KC is once again the superior team this year. But there can be no talk of dominance in the regular season. Never has a 15-win team had a worse point differential than the 2024 Chiefs. The way the three-time champion emerged victorious week after week made me believe he had a pact with the devil.

But when they lift the Vince Lombardy Trophy again in around four weeks, no one will be interested in all the luck they had during the regular season. Success is not luck. Even every critic and doubter must know this.

And the path to the Super Bowl looks pretty clear this year. As first seed, they always have home advantage. The Divisional Round awaits the winner with the highest seed. If the Broncos (7) or Steelers (6) manage a surprise against the highly favored Bills and Ravens, respectively, they would go to Arrowhead. Otherwise, the winner of the opening duel on Saturday will have to be between the Houston Texans (4) and the Los Angeles Chargers (5). KC has already won against all four teams this season.

The NFL in the FC Bayern dilemma

No matter what the opponent is called, the Chiefs would be the overwhelming favorites. It wasn’t until the championship game that the summit meeting with the Ravens or Bills took place. Both teams would arrive with the bad memories of previous years. Coach Andy Reid’s team has an important psychological advantage in every duel.

I dread that. I want variety. Aren’t many sports fans in Germany drawn to American football precisely because of the overwhelming dominance and one-sidedness in football? If the Chiefs always win, the NFL will soon find itself in an FC Bayern dilemma.