Climate forecast: First “ice -free” day in the Arctic could be in late summer 2027

The times that the timing is getting closer and closer to that of the Arctic Ocean can become ice -free. The latest echoing assumes that satellite images could already show a day -free day in the northern oral arms in 2027 – reason is extremely bad.

But ice -free doesn’t mean birds without ice. When the sea ice is just covering the area of ​​Egypt, a million square kilometers, gilded for scientists: the north polar in the inside. Why this swell value? Somewhere near the coast, in a driven bays or between islands will still stake some ice with increasing global warming. This isolated accumulations are considered. Daruber Hininus is also practical for climate and polar research in order to be able to consistently overflowed and predicted across various studies and periods.

Climate change Beunder in the Arctic

Now never warps earth as quickly as in the Arctic, namely three -im -tim -tim -high faster than the planet as a whole.

The hat followed that swing up: the dark, dark sea surface, which is freed from iron, absorbs more warmth because the so -called albedo, the reinforcement of the sun’s heat, the ice is lacking. That trims global warming upwards.

With the dwindling ice, Nick only drastic the habitats in the far north. The wetter of the geesamt north of the hemisphere may also mutate towards more frequent and stronger extremes. Because a warmer Arctic weakens the jet stream, which is determining for the northern hemisphere, fauter -determining jet stream. On top of that, ice -free Arctic also evokes geopolitis

Hardly the meter ice thickness in the Arctic

Celine Heuzé, climateologist at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, accounts in the narrow summer Arctic expedition in the Northern Pole Arart Measure how thin the ice there are now. If you were running an ice thickness of two meters more than the North Pole 20 years ago, it was barely a meter in the summer of 2024 in the summer of 2024. In September, they have the slightest lingering the ice rink.

Heuzé and her colleague Alexandra Jahn from the University of Colorado Boulder, USA, now wanted to know when the first ice -free day in the Arctic Ocean will appear. “Derst ice -free day in the Arctic will dramatically change things,” said Jahn. “But he would show how we have fundamentally changed the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean through tribhaus gas emusions.”

Climate change: The 1.5-degree limit is out of my mind

In one study The two wiserinins analyzed the results of over 300 climate simulation. The mostly the models predicted that the first ice -free day could occur within nine to 20 years after 2023. There is an derivative The 1.5-degree limit die. Ice -free days only occur in all simulations if the global the average temperature is over 1.5 graduates in one five years in a row.

But nine of the simulation forecasts forecast the appearance an ice -free day before 2033, whereby the freight -free day could be classified in the Arctic Ocean SoAG in 2027.

“We haven as many simulations as possible”

That was likely to have been at least 80,000 years ago when modern people began to emigrate from Africa and to spread them in Asia and Europe.

“We carried out as many simulations as possible and showed that after heating the earth by 1.5 degrees compared to the pre -industrial period, the risk of an ice -free day in the Arctic Ocean is no longer zero. It increases drastically when the climate continues to warm up, ”Jahn Erhn.

An extreme scenario is an extreme scenario that there could be an ice -free day in two years at the end of August, an extreme scenario – but not impossible.

Several extremes would have to come together in the Arctic

So an event may occur, several extreme weather owners meet by chance. If the sea ice is for example, by a preceded mild autumn, Berers Dünner is than evil, an additional wintry heat wave can be hindle that sea ice wähthst. A heat wave in Arctic winter means temperature of around -20 degrees Celsius, too little for solid ice growth. The sea ice cream heated so thin and brittle in the following summer that a strong storm could break up the marine surface. Occasionally ice floes melt faster than a closed ice blanket.

“This individual walking has been ready in the Arctic, only nods in the correct order within the same seasons,” says Heuzé. “The risk of the correct order takes with the Climate change To show wire results. “

Is an ice -free Arctic a tilting point in the climate margin?

Incidentally, an inis -free north sea is No tilting point. Because the ice surface can recover, mankind reduces the triibhaus gas emitship and thus lowers the earth temperature.

So hayzé also encourages how Reduce tribhaus gas emitships. “The” only ” -man is happy to think in the event strips.