Funnel Defense Report: Week 8

In our eternal mission to predict the future, in my humble estimation, a top-down look at how an offense might attack its opponent’s defense is a good place to start.

Every season we find defenses that excel at what is known as a “run funnel,” meaning that opponents rely unusually heavily on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: defenses that are regularly attacked from the air in neutral situations (generally, that means when the game is within seven points either way).

This column is about identifying those matches. This funnel defense analysis shouldn’t be the be-all and end-all for determining your weekly fantasy plays. It’s just another data point in your nerve-wracking decision-making about who to play and who to bench.

Pass funnel matchups

Packers vs. Jaguars

Finally, finally, we were able to get Jordan Love and the Packers, who have been playing first or even since Love returned from injury, some sort of high-volume passing out.

Jacksonville now has the most advanced pass funnel defense in the league. The Jaguars’ opponents avoid a rush defense that allows the seventh-fewest yards before contact per rush and the third-lowest rushing success rate and attack a generous secondary that gives up the NFL’s highest drop-back EPA. Every single one of the Jaguars’ opponents in 2024 has exceeded their expected passing percentage. Only four teams had a higher neutral pass rate in 2024.

The Packers, meanwhile, appear more comfortable leaning on Love two months after his opening-day knee injury. They were 5 percent above their expected drop back rate against Houston last week, resulting in a season-high 37 drop backs and 33 pass attempts.

Increased passing volume will be a boon for Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft — and possibly Christian Watson, too. Never a true target commander, Doubs managed just 10 goals in Week 7 against Houston. I would be skeptical of such a target distribution, but a pass-heavy game against the Jaguars could lead to another good game for Doubs.

I would be remiss – and I never will – if I didn’t mention that the Packers are the NFL’s fifth-largest passing threat. It’s a duel with lots of offensive attacks on both sides of the ball. Some say it’s a good fantasy setting. Others agree.

Browns vs. Ravens

Zoomers are about to discover the acclaimed Jameis Winston Experience. The irrepressible Winston throws into any window at any time and for any reason. He’ll make Brett Favre look like Alex Smith. He throws the best pass you’ve ever seen, followed by the single worst football play you’ve ever seen. Winston is fantastic for fantasy, for better or worse.

We shouldn’t expect anything less from his first start for the Browns in 2024. They face the Ravens, who have the second-largest pass funnel and have been a mainstay on this field since Week 2. The Ravens are one of the toughest rush defenses in the league and give their opponents no choice but to vent. We saw it again last week: The Bucs had a 67 percent drop-back rate against Baltimore (which was somehow 2 percent below expectations). Baltimore’s opponents were at least 7 percent above their expected pass rate in four of seven games this season. That’s a lot.

According to the analytics in my head, Winston will drop back about 100 times in Week 8. There is no chance that the Browns can prevail against the heavily favored Ravens. Winston and the Browns will be chasing points from start to finish and it could be glorious for David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman. It also makes Winston interesting for those looking to make it as a quarterback.

The game script here could be so strange that you could start defending Winston and the Ravens and get by just fine. Let Cleveland pass catchers rip in Week 8.

Titans versus lions

I hate writing about the Tennessee offense, but I have to tell you, dear funnel-loving reader, that the Titans are going into Week 8 against the third-most extreme pass-funnel defense in the league.

The Titans posted a 66 percent fallback rate against the Bills in Week 7, 2 percent above their expected rate. It didn’t generate much volume for anyone other than Calvin Ridley, who had the nine worst targets. With DeAndre Hopkins joining the Chiefs this week, Ridley could easily reach double figures against the Lions. Tyler Boyd could also be in play if you hit rock bottom in deep formats.

It is impossible to say whether these options are of any use at all.

Dolphins vs. Cardinals

Tua’s return likely means Miami’s offense returns to normal as the team plays down the stretch in what is likely the final year of the Mike McDaniel era. Tyreek Hill, for example, urged fantasy managers to root for him with unbridled confidence in Week 8 against Arizona. He did not provide any information about the league standings.

Although the Cardinals’ opponents this season are slightly below their expected pass rate, we see some passing bias against Arizona: Each of the team’s last four opponents are at least 5 percent above their expected pass rate. Since Week 4, only four teams have a more extreme pass funnel than the Cards. Arizona, which had the NFL’s third-highest completion percentage above expectations, has invited teams to establish the pass.

It prepares well for Tua and the dolphins. They’ll certainly want to re-establish themselves as analytics darlings after being unable to run an NFL-caliber offense over the last month. I’m not as confident in this decision as I am in predicting that the Packers or Browns will throw too many passes. After all, McDaniel is primarily a run-establisher when the game script allows it. But the Dolphins will inevitably go from being the NFL’s run-heavy offense to having an above-average pass rate that’s above expectations in Week 8. That’s enough to make Tua, Hill and Jaylen Waddle interesting. Jonnu Smith, who has seen a target on 32 percent of his pass routes over the past two weeks, should be considered for guys struggling at tight end.

Conduct funnel matchups

Bears versus commanders

Lost in the discourse about the public being deprived of a Caleb-Jayden matchup in Week 8 are the Commanders, who are becoming one of the league’s most reliable run-funnel defenses. That makes sense: Washington gives up the fifth-highest rush EPA and third-highest rush yards rate before contact, a key metric for identifying weak run defenses.

The Bears, meanwhile, have certainly shown a willingness to establish themselves when the match demands it. They are 5 percent below their expected drop-back rate in their last three games and are posting a low drop-back rate of 52 percent in those games. It’s very likely that Chicago will run the ball at a glaring pace against a Washington defense that has been considered the NFL’s most prolific running back since Week 4.

D’Andre Swift is the obvious beneficiary here. He’s seen 68 percent of the Bears’ running backs this season and continues to get fed where it counts most: the green zone. Only eight backs have more inside-the-10 rushes than Swift, and only six have more totes inside the five. Swift enters Week 8 with as much of a touchdown lead as anyone not named Derrick Henry.

What this could mean for Caleb Williams and the Bears’ pass catchers is very different. Since the Bears switched to a run-first approach, Williams has averaged 229 passing yards per game and 5.9 air yards per attempt, the lowest in the league since Week 4. That leaves no room for anyone but DJ Moore and maybe some passing game juice left in Keenan Allen.

Broncos vs. Panthers

Javonte Williams’ renaissance – a nice little surprise to all my bad best ball teams – could continue in Week 8 in a matchup with a terribly bad Carolina defense. With the fourth-highest rushing success rate in the league and the third-lowest rushing stuff rate (34 percent), the Panthers have the fourth-strongest run funnel in the NFL.

No team has seen more rushing attempts against them in 2024 than the Panthers. The fact that the Broncos haven’t been pushed hard this season won’t stop them from prevailing against Carolina in Week 8. The Broncos’ elite defense should help bring out all the positives Game Script Javonte still needs to complete another 15 to 18 touches as the star player in Denver’s backfield.

Patriots vs. Jets

Will this game contain a lot of neutral game scripts? Probably not. Could it? Well, maybe, considering the Jets stink. In my opinion, in this non-blowout scenario, the Patriots can and will establish the run against New York, the league’s third-largest run funnel through Week 7.

Three of the Jets’ last four opponents were at least 6 percent below their expected pass rate. Teams facing the Jets pass the ball in neutral situations at a pass rate of 51 percent (one game) – the third-worst mark in the NFL. While their pass defense has been fine, the Jets are giving up the eighth-highest rushing success rate and the sixth-highest yards after contact per rush on the season.

Rhamondre Stevenson, who continues to be the presumptive leader of the Patriots’ backfield, has a path, albeit a narrow one, to decent rush volume in a favorable matchup. He shouldn’t be completely written off by fantasy managers this week.

Texans vs. Colts

Colts opponents are now 18 percent below their expected pass rate for the season. Everyone is focused on the run against an abysmal Colts defense that is taking no favors from the stuck-in-the-mud Colts offense, hoping and praying that their quarterback will do something positive.

You already know this, but it’s another Joe Mixon week. The run-happy Texans, who were 9 percent below their expected drop-back rate in Week 1 against the Horseshoes, will undoubtedly annihilate the Colts by rushing from start to finish. That could (should) wipe out the pass volume for Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs and the rest of Houston’s pass catchers. It could also make CJ Stroud a borderline starting option in 12-team leagues.