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Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks: Week 9 (2024)

Posted on by Peyom
Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks: Week 9 (2024)

Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks: Week 9 (2024)

The close call was as disappointing as ever. Things never really change. The position continues to leave fantasy managers wanting more. The problem is that it probably won’t happen this season.

In this article, we examine four tight ends whose values ​​have risen or fallen in recent weeks. Through this in-depth exercise, we will determine what to do with these four special tight ends and how we should evaluate them for the remainder of the season.

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Does this mean the end for Mark Andrews?

The Baltimore Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson this week, which will certainly shake up Baltimore’s offense, but what does that mean for Andrews?

To put it bluntly, fantasy managers should be very concerned. Andrews has enjoyed an upswing over the past four weeks, with his PPG average rising to 12.9 for half PPR. She averaged 2.4 PPG through the first four weeks of the season. A majority of that production, 46.3%, came from four touchdowns.

His route participation rate in Weeks 5-7 was similar to Weeks 1-4, suggesting increased production is likely a hot streak rather than the future. It’s worth noting that his route participation finally crossed the 70 percent threshold in Week 8 for the first time this season.

Still, his snap share and route participation rate are well below what fantasy managers expect from Andrews, and that was before the team traded for Johnson. This season, Baltimore has had 11 players present just 28.1% of the time, the lowest in the NFL.

This trade could increase the utilization of 11 personnel, which would lead to even lighter boxes for Derrick Henry. However, this could mean fewer snaps for Andrews. Andrews was in the slot on 57.1% of his snaps. When the Ravens have 11 players, they often use Andrews as a big-slot receiver and Isaiah Likely as an inline tight end. With Johnson on board, the team could use Zay Flowers, a speedy athlete, in place of Andrews.

Because we’re ignoring the fact that there’s a strong chance that his routes and snaps will decline even further in this trade, we didn’t address the increased target competition, which is a big deal. Baltimore ranks 31st in pass attempts, averaging 29 passes per game.

Flowers averages 7.63 goals per game. Johnson averages 8.29. From 2020 to 2024, Johnson averaged 8.89 goals per game. With that in mind, it shouldn’t be shocking that Flowers and Johnson have 50% of the target share going forward.

This offense could be very similar to Philadelphia’s, with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith dominating the target rate. This hinders Dallas Goedert, who is still in top form, enormously. Andrews is no more. Andrews now falls to No. 3 on Lamar Jackson’s scoring hierarchy, and on a team that only passes the ball 29 times, that’s a big red flag. And not only that: how sure are we that he will always be number 3?

Right now, Rashod Bateman and Isaiah probably have a higher target average per game than Andrews. Although Andrews has come into play in the last few weeks, even if he has solidified his spot ahead of these two guys, he still shouldn’t be anything more than a mediocre TE2 player.

This trade could spell disaster for Andrews’ fantasy value for the rest of the season. He’s lived on touchdowns the last four weeks, but as this trade shrinks his potential volume, he’ll become even more reliant on touchdowns. If you can sell it, you should sell it. Now.

I’m not sure how good Otton is. He’s definitely good enough to take advantage of an incredible situation, that’s for sure. Jake Ferguson was in a similar situation last year. Austin Hooper did that in Atlanta. I would advise caution when it comes to pairing Otton with the elite tight ends, but his situation is as elite as it gets.

Ferguson is an excellent comparison to Otton. Both tight ends lacked target competition from the receivers. While Ferguson has CeeDee Lamb, Otton has no real receiver competition, although Mike Evans will return at some point. Both offenses were extremely pass-heavy, not only in the number of pass attempts, but also in the above-expected pass rate and the pass rate in neutral situations. Both teams rely heavily on their passing offense.

They also have quarterbacks who give it their all. That’s not true for Ferguson this year, but it’s been the last two seasons where he’s been a fantasy darling. Baker Mayfield is going crazy this year. With Chris Godwin out for the year and Evans on the mend through Week 12, including the Week 11 bye, Otton should remain heavily involved in the passing game for the rest of the season.

In Week 7, Godwin played 85% of the snaps before getting injured late. Evans played just 28%. Tampa Bay trailed Baltimore early and forced the Buccaneers to pass. Because of this, Mayfield had 45 pass attempts. Otton did his part.

He had 10 targets, eight receptions and 100 yards and finished with 14.0 PPR half points and a 22.2% target share. Evans and Godwin combined for 12 scores, eight receptions, 90 yards and a touchdown. The following week, the first game without one of its standout receivers, Tampa Bay was still passing the ball at an incredibly high rate. Mayfield finished the game with 50 pass attempts for Tampa Bay and once again played catch-up to the Atlanta Falcons.

Otton had 10 scores, nine receptions, 81 yards and two touchdowns en route to 24.6 PPR half points and a 20.0% target share. Target percentages of 20.0% and above are excellent, but fantasy managers shouldn’t expect Mayfield to continue throwing the ball 45 and 51 times per game.

Prior to these two games, Tampa Bay was averaging 31.5 pass attempts per game. In weeks 7 to 8 there was an average of 47.5 attempts. Assuming that this levels off in the coming weeks, Otton’s target volume will also decrease.

Because of his environment, Otton has moved to the top of the top 12 tight end rankings for the remainder of the season. I could imagine him being between TE11 and TE14. Given that and his production over the last two weeks, he could be a great candidate for big sales.

If you could trade Otton for someone like Dalton Kincaid and get an upgrade somewhere else in your starting lineup, I would do that. Otton will be a solid addition, but he’s not a league winner. Tight ends are rare.

Is the Real League winner Evan Engram?

Christian Kirk’s broken collarbone and his retirement for the year could have a significant impact on Engram. Over the past two seasons, Engram has played 16 games with Kirk and five without. The breakdowns, courtesy of RotoViz, can be seen below.

Five games is a small selection, but the results are overwhelming. Engram saw its PPG average increase by 73.3% from half a PPR. He also saw a 44.6% increase in targets, a 41.1% increase in receptions, a 45.7% increase in yards, and a 400% increase in touchdowns per game.

Engram’s 14.84 half-PPR-PPG average without Kirk would give him TE2 for the season. This number would be 4.0 PPG more (37% more) than TE3 and 7.1 PPG more (92%) than TE12.

Since returning from his hamstring injury in Week 6, Engram has scored 20 goals. He has averaged 6.7 goals per game, putting his total at 113 goals. That was with Kirk on the field. Its upside potential is now even higher.

Engram could potentially be a league winner for the remainder of the season, especially given the tainted position tight ends predominate.

Should we continue to trust Jake Ferguson?

Ferguson currently ranks fourth among tight ends this season with an average of 7.0 per game. He ranks fifth in receptions per game with 5.17, but is only 10th in yards per game with 43.8. He currently ranks just 16th with a PPG average of 7.0 Half-PPR.

Last year he had 23 targets in the red zone. This year he has only three in six games. That’s a drop from 1.35 red zone targets per game last year to 0.50 this year, a 170% decline. Fantasy managers may remember a similar trend last year.

In Weeks 1 through 6 last year, before the team’s bye in Week 7, Ferguson averaged just 5.9 half PPR PPG. After the bye, Ferguson averaged 9.6 half-PPR-PPG in Weeks 8-17, ranking TE7. Fantasy managers are hoping a similar trend occurs this season, and there is reason for optimism.

Some of these numbers aren’t all that different from this year. His average depth of target (aDOT) this year was 5.0 and his yards per target average was 7.5. Ferguson had a much better second half of the season and there is hope that this happens again. There’s no guarantee that will happen, but as of now, fantasy managers must continue to build Ferguson.

His volume and capabilities are elite. The Dallas offense has virtually no running game and their defense has been questionable. As a result, the Dallas offense remains extremely pass-friendly. The lack of reliable options behind CeeDee Lamb will concern Ferguson. Hopefully this leads to more fantasy points soon.

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