Thursday Night Football odds, picks

new York The Jets season is on life support after a shocking loss to the New England Patriots, and they have virtually no margin for error the rest of the year.

On Thursday, they welcome a Houston Texans team to MetLife Stadium that has won four of its last five games.

Who will come out on top this prime time? AFC Battle?

Let’s dive into the matchups and find out the betting value.

When the Texans have the ball

I’ve been unimpressed with Houston’s offense for most of this season.

Despite CJ Stroud being one of the brightest young quarterbacks in the league, the Texans rank 29th among NFL offenses in early attack success rate, a predictive measure of long-term offensive performance.

Houston struggled to maintain consistency on offense, especially with superstar receiver Nico Collins sidelined.

Stefon Diggs is now out for the season after a cruciate ligament tear.

That puts the Texans in a tough spot against a Jets defense that still ranks second in dropback success rate this season.

Stroud struggled against the Jets’ defense last year, completing just 10 of 23 passes for 91 yards and recording four sacks in a 30-6 win at New York.

That was with Collins on the field, and it’s hard to imagine Stroud lighting up the scoreboard without two starting receivers.

Stroud was also significantly worse off in his career.

At home, he has averaged 8.6 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 105.7, compared to 6.9 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 90.5 on the road.

When the Jets have the ball

The Jets trade acquisition of Davante Adams fails to solve the team’s biggest problem – an offensive line that has fallen well short of preseason expectations.

New York ranks 24th among NFL teams in pass block win rate this year, and Aaron Rodgers will likely be under significant pressure against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.

The duo leads the league’s fourth-best defensive line by pass rush win rate.

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) hands the ball to running back Breece Hall (20) during the first half at Gillette Stadium. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Rodgers’ lack of mobility in the pocket has become a significant problem, especially as he struggles with various lower-body ailments behind an offensive line that can’t protect him.

After last week’s game, Patriots defensive tackle Davon Godchaux said, “He can’t go back there…he doesn’t look mobile at all.”

The Jets will also likely have trouble running the ball.

New York ranks 30th in adjusted offensive line yards and faces a Houston defense that ranks sixth in defensive line yards and second in run-stop win rate.

This will likely lead to several third-and-long situations for Rodgers, which will be problematic against Houston’s third-ranked pass defense through DVOA.

Betting on the NFL?

Final verdict

The Texans’ losses to Collins and Diggs are devastating for an offense that has already struggled to maintain consistency this season.

This looks like a brutal attack for Stroud on the road against a defense that can still build pressure and maintain coverage.

Meanwhile, the Jets’ weak offensive line will be completely overwhelmed against a strong Texans front seven, creating obvious passing situations for an immobile Rodgers behind an offensive line that can’t protect him from an elite pass rush.

I trust both defenses on Thursday Night Football.

Recommendation: Under 42 (-110, ESPN BET)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne covers college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It is up 84.5 units in both sports, with an ROI of 6.27%.