Broken by migration and energy issues – island elects new parliament

After the collapse of the previous government coalition, a new parliament is being elected early in Iceland. Almost 270,000 eligible voters are called upon to cast their vote – more than one in ten of them have already put their cross before the actual election day. For everyone else, the polling stations are scheduled to be open on Saturday between 9 a.m. and 10 p.m. (local time). 63 parliamentary seats are up for grabs.

There will be no forecasts immediately after the polls close. Partial results from different parts of the country are gradually expected over the course of the night. A preliminary final result is expected to be known on Sunday morning German time – provided that the currently harsh weather conditions, especially in the east of the North Atlantic island, do not lead to delays in voting and counting. There were fears some voters could have difficulty reaching polling stations as heavy snow and stronger winds were forecast for some regions.

Unusual coalition collapsed

Actually, the next parliamentary election in Iceland will not take place until late summer 2025. However, disagreements in Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson’s three-party coalition caused the government to collapse in mid-October, whereupon President Halla Tómasdóttir dissolved parliament early at the request of the head of government.

Benediktsson only took over the post of head of government from long-time Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir in April. She resigned from her government position in the spring because of her bid for the Icelandic presidency, but then lost the election to Tómasdóttir.

Meanwhile, Benediktsson failed to keep the atypical government coalition, which reached across the political center, alive. The head of the liberal-conservative Independence Party justified the exit from the coalition with differences of opinion on, among other things, migration and energy issues. However, observers believe this is a pretext to end the difficult alliance with the Progress Party and the Left-Green Movement led by Jakobsdóttir.

“Katrín Jakobsdóttir held this coalition together for seven years. “It was the glue of the government with these three parties, which ranges from right to left,” said Professor of Political Science at the University of Iceland, Eva Heida Önnudóttir, analyzing the current political situation. Jakobsdóttir’s departure ultimately heralded the collapse of the coalition, in which there was only agreement on a few issues.

Opportunities for both the right and center alliances

Surveys suggest that at least three parties will continue to be necessary for a government majority. Until recently, Kristrún Frostadóttir’s Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylkingin) and Thorgerdur Katrín Gunnarsdóttir’s Liberal Reform Party (Vidreisn), which was only founded in 2016, were very popular with those surveyed. The three previous governing parties, on the other hand, must expect losses.

Who will form the future government is still highly uncertain. The chances are 50:50 between a possible conservative-right three-party coalition led by Benediktsson and a liberal center coalition that could consist of Vidreisn, Samfylkingin and another party, says Önnudóttir. The Progress Party, which is politically in the middle, could play a key role.

According to a survey from early November, 60 percent of countries consider issues such as health care, the economy and housing particularly important. Only 32 percent of respondents said this about immigration.