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Buy gold or Bitcoin? Gold is better for wealth than crypto

Buy gold or Bitcoin? Gold is better for wealth than crypto

Daniel Saurenz
Gold is better for wealth creation than crypto

Gold jewelry

Gold often ends up under the Christmas tree, whether as jewelry, coins or bars

© ANP | “ROBIN VAN LONKHUIJSEN” / Picture Alliance

2024 is likely to go down in the history of the yellow precious metal as a “golden year”. But with the election of Trump, doubts arise in the market as to whether there will be a sequel in 2025. However, one factor that is important for investors is one that is often underestimated

Even though, as is well known, settlement only takes place at the end, the stock market year 2024 will have made many investors very happy. With indices such as Dax, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, returns well above average were possible. Aside from the stock markets, things also went up steeply: The Bitcoin is up around 120 percent and is absolutely safe, making rather boring havens like gold shine like rarely in recent years. According to evaluations by the gold dealer Ophirum, gold delivered a return of almost 28 percent. “The yellow precious metal even beats the S&P 500 and is well on its way to surpassing even the strong annual result of 30 percent from 2007,” said the experts from the Lynx broker. In addition, the chances of success in the remaining weeks are good, as a look at the statistics shows.

Buy lots of gold for Christmas

It’s not just the stock markets that tend to have a positive end to the year, the seasonality of gold is also positive. “Anyone who has entered at the end of November over the past seven years and sold on the first trading day of the year has always been successful,” said Jürgen Molnar from broker RoboMarkets, analyzing the new trend. In five years, the position was almost always in the black over the entire holding period. The last time there was a negative December balance was in 2016, with a loss of a good three percent, and the prospects for success were also mixed in previous years. The effect is still young and should therefore be treated with caution.

How is the gold price developing?

But there are other, more medium-term reasons that speak against a stronger correction in the gold market. The troy ounce fell sharply after Donald Trump’s election. The setback from the record high reached recently is not primarily due to his re-election, but rather to the fact that, contrary to the polls, Joe Biden’s successor was decided very quickly. This means that a significant uncertainty factor is eliminated and risk was once again in demand. But it is precisely this unrest factor that is likely to emerge again soon with Trump in the White House.

Russia and China buy gold instead of US government bonds

The focus is on Trump’s economic policy. In order to finance the announced massive tax cuts, new national debt is necessary. It is therefore dependent on relatively low interest rates and therefore a loose monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve. However, this is only possible if inflation does not increase again and the monetary authorities are given appropriate leeway. Trump is therefore likely to quickly put pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to further cut interest rates. The Fed will probably ease further, but not as much as currently expected. The interesting question will therefore be who will buy US government bonds. Countries such as China, Russia and Turkey have been increasingly turning to gold for some time and are avoiding US bonds.

For good reason, as geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts continue to increase. In addition, gold as a tangible asset always guarantees a certain value in contrast to crypto assets. This is one of the reasons why the precious metal is considered a classic safe haven alongside bonds and currencies such as the Swiss franc. Bitcoin has put in an impressive performance in the past few months and is likely to be even more celebrated in the media when it breaks the $100,000 barrier. However, investors should not forget that return and risk are always proportional to one another.

Bitcoin: Price fluctuates greatly

Although gold is often described as a safe haven, it has also shown longer correction phases in the past. The troy ounce lost a good 40 percent between 2011 and 2016. “Bitcoin instead plays in a different risk league,” says expert Molnar. Although the digital coin shows very strong rally phases, every hype was also followed by a crypto winter. Daily movements of ten percent and painful corrections are not uncommon. Since 2010, the price has fallen by 80 to 90 percent from its record high four times.

Anyone who exchanges gold for Bitcoins also takes a lot of risk. Cryptos are used for speculation, gold is used for long-term wealth creation and stability in the portfolio. In addition to bonds and safe haven currencies, the precious metal remains a safe haven that is needed, like protection on the stock market, especially when things become more turbulent again. And the year 2025 is likely to have some surprises in store.

Daniel Saurenz He and his team run the stock market portal Feingold Research. It offers a daily stock market newsletter that you can test for free. Register at [email protected] or try out the stock exchange service here link out of.